Pandemic Simulator

Pandemic is a Poppyfish business simulation and management learning exercise designed to help organisations to understand the possible consequences of an outbreak of pandemic flu. The simulation involves participants managing a number of realistically structured and interactive departments, business units or teams through a pandemic cycle, juggling resources to maintain operations and deliver objectives. Run as a one day phased decision making exercise Pandemic uses data on infection rates from the UK Dept of Health and NHS but is tailored specifically to the organisational hierarchy of the client organisation.

Learning objectives
The learning objective of this simulation is that by the end of the session participants will have negotiated their organisation through a 15 week pandemic cycle and will understand more about the impact that an event such as a pandemic flu outbreak could have on their workplace. The simulation is primarily about strengthening organisational resilience to such incidents, but also offers opportunities for personal learning for those involved. In addition, through interactions with other attendees, participants have the opportunity to consider the importance that communication plays in the workplace and have plentiful opportunities to reflect on the decision making challenges that such situations present and the way in which external events and political pressures within the organisation can influence managerial planning, even in a crisis.

Resilience in organisations occurs when the system continues to operate despite failures in some of its parts and despite the disturbances caused by events. In facilitated feedback discussion at the end of the session participants are encouraged to reflect on their experience of the simulation and identify areas within their own areas of responsibility within the real organisation where they feel emergency planning - and ultimately organisational resilience - might be improved through greater application of Business Continuity Planning, continuous process improvements and staff development and training.

How it works
Each participant, or pair of participants if the group is large, takes on the role of a Departmental, team or Business Unit Manager within the organisation. Which exact roles are chosen is determined either in consultation with the client or by the role of the real managers on the exercise. Each team, business unit or department starts the simulation with a standard resource complement, roughly equivalent to the number of Full Time Equivalents working in that group. These are broken down across role and position. The most senior member of staff present is responsible for the overall management of the organisation, taking on the role of CEO during a full fifteen phase business cycle. Each phase of the exercise represents one week of real time.

At the start of each phase the department or team manager must allocate his or her resources across the spectrum of his or her responsibilities, bearing in mind that some resources can only work in certain areas. This allocation will generate an ‘output’ for the phase, using units and language in use by the client. The facilitators collate total output figures for that phase and provide a total resource and output summary to the CEO, who uses data received to assess overall organisational performance.

At the commencement of the next phase the managers commence the process again, only this time round we start to introduce the impact of staff absences. As time passes and the pandemic takes hold, the managers face some realistic and potentially uncomfortable decisions.

At various stages in the simulation external factors are introduced. These range in impact and will include a variety of realistic every day events that influence life at work. Participants respond to these within the scenario, giving the manager an all to real challenge to manage. External news items and other externalities also continue as in the real world, and we use various forms of media to inject this into the exercise.

The rate at which a pandemic affects resource in an organisation would vary according to a number of factors. The manner in which infection spreads in the simulation is based on NHS and UK Department of Health projected infection rates. Such is the mechanic of the simulator that different departments are likely to experience different rates of infection, and so the overall experience may seem very different from one part of the organisation to the next. In the simulation, as in real life, managers have to work together to reduce the impact on the overall business. Senior managers – represented in our simulation by the CEO – have a significant role to play in this. Part of the CEO’s job is to liaise with his or her managers to ensure the organisation can continue to operate. If resources fall below minimum levels then drastic measures may be needed. Of course, what form these measures take is up to the CEO and the ability of the organisation to respond.

What tends to happen?
Different organisations and managers respond differently to the system, but some systemic outcomes can be identified. As the scenario gets underway and the resource shortage starts to hurt, business units and departments tend to become more inward looking as managers fire fight within their area of responsibility, with the inevitable consequence that intercompany communication and jointly resourced projects start to suffer. This inward focus often leaves the CEO with an information crisis and a complete halt on some of the most crucial business projects. Typically, as the pandemic takes hold, the CEO’s office requests more information and reports from the already pressed managers, increasing stress levels and often leading to inaccurate reports that the CEO then takes as the truth. As the scenario plays out, the relationships between the teams becomes stressed, power raises its head in some direct ways, and resource ‘hoarding’ often occurs, where departments or business units that are not so badly affected by the pandemic become reluctant to help out struggling colleagues. All normal stuff for most organisations!

What is the response of managers?
Managers who have taken part in this exercise typically have three reactions. Firstly, they comment that they need to be able to have a clear way of prioritising work. When resource drops, what is the first thing that can be put on hold? Who are the key stakeholders in that process? Whilst many managers know that such information should be available to them few feel able to make the decisions without referral to other key stakeholders. For highly bureaucratic organisations this can be extremely stressing.

Secondly, there is a realisation that in critical situations certain parts of the business become critical points of failure. Identifying these is an early topic for discussion in the post scenario debrief.

Thirdly, the management culture of the company is reflected upon. Pandemic places a stress on open and closed systems alike, but high control cultures are placed under high stress during an outbreak, whilst open systems fight against – and often lose – a battle with themselves about delegation and control. The exercise also typically unearths some additional areas of management uncertainty, especially around obligations regarding travel policies, dependency leave, the suspected need for quarantine and the return to work of staff who have been away via absence. Many organisations reflect that they do not have suitable HR policy to cover such situations and for those who do, issues can arise over conformity and suitability of the policies –many of which are not understood by line managers tasked with taking daily decisions. In fact, experience suggests that managers place more weight on guidance issues by news agencies (played to them during the scenario) than by local HR, something which gives rise to some important discussions between participants both during and after the exercise.

Overall, the simulation serves to stimulate thinking around ways to make the organisation more resilient. It may be that the worst of the scaremongering around swine flu and bird flu have abated for the moment, but the need for organisational resilience is something that never goes away.


Please contact us to find out more about how the Pandemic simulator might help to improve the resilience of your workplace.